(CN) - The population of the European Union is projected to decrease by more than 7% over the next 75 years as the population ages and fewer people are born, according to the 2025 Demography of Europe, an interactive database updated Tuesday by Eurostat.
The population decline is forecasted to be most pronounced in the Baltic countries of Lithuania and Latvia, which are each projected to lose at least 37% of their citizenry. Greece is set to experience the third-largest impact with a 29% reduction in its population, from more than 10.3 million people today to fewer than 7.2 million in the year 2100, according to the data.
Other countries with significant projected declines include Bulgaria and Croatia (-26%), Poland (-23%) and Romania (-22%). Slovakia is likely to experience an 18% reduction in population, followed by Italy and Finland, both with projected reductions of 15%.
On the other hand, several countries are projected to experience notable growth by 2100. Iceland leads the EU with a projected 55% increase in population, from an estimated 402,007 today to 624,532 in 2100. Growth is also projected to be robust in Luxembourg (+45%), Malta (+38%), Sweden (+24%), Norway (+22%) and Sweden (+13%).
Germany and France, the region's first- and second-most populous nations, are projected to each lose just 1% of their population over the next 75 years. Spain, with the fourth-largest population in the EU, is projected to lose 7% of citizens, from about 45 million today to more than 48.6 million in 2100.
Since 2012, the EU has recognized the region is suffering from a low birth rate of 1.5 children per woman, "well below the value of 2.1 required to maintain a stable population," according to a related report, Eurostat's 2021 green paper on aging. At the same time, Europe has a growing senior population, with life expectancy increasing to 82.8 years for women and 77.2 years for men.
Of the larger European nations, perhaps Italy will experience the largest decline, as the total population is predicted to fall from 58.9 million today to 50.1 million in 2100. However, the population of citizens 65 and over is poised to increase 20%, from 14.5 million today to 17.6 million in 2100.
As further testament to the low birth rate, the EU as a whole is projected to experience an 18% decline in the number of citizens under 20, while only five of the 27 member states are predicted to post positive metrics. Malta and Luxembourg are on track to lead the EU with 22% and 21% increases in people under 20, respectively, followed by Iceland (+17%), Sweden (+2%) and Switzerland (+1%).
The under-20 population largely mirrors the total population trends for each country going forward through 2100, but some countries such as Denmark may maintain a relatively stable total population (+2%) despite losing as much as 12% of its younger population.
Perhaps most tellingly over the next 75 years, the number of people aged 20-64 in the EU is projected to decline by 20.6%, while the number aged 65-79 is predicted to decrease 15%. But the number of people over the age of 80 is projected to more than double from 27.8 million today to 64 million in 2100.
Demographic changes are monitored for the profound effects large swings may have on labor markets, employment, social services and international relations.
Source: Courthouse News Service
